Permanent Prediction Record
×
Window Elapsed
No Match Found
The forecast window has closed. No qualifying seismic event was recorded within the predicted parameters.
Predicted Magnitude
M2.1
17.5 miles North of Warm Springs
Original Prediction Parameters
Predicted Location
17.5 miles North of Warm Springs
38.4292°N, 116.4577°W
Forecast Time Window
7th of June 2026
Jun 07, 2026 23:36:06 PST
Predicted Magnitude
M2.1
Predicted value
Focal Depth
6.9 km
Below surface
Prediction Type
Prospective
Live forward-issued before the event
Lead Time
489h 6m
Advance notice before predicted event time
Location Map
Predicted epicentre
Matched Earthquake
⚠ Preliminary - subject to revision when the pipeline confirms the result
A recorded earthquake fell within every matching tolerance, so this prediction is graded a true positive. Each parameter below shows how close the match was.
Distance Error
4.2 km
Within 100 km tolerance
Time Error
12.3 h
Within 36 h tolerance
Magnitude Error
0.35
Predicted M2.15 vs actual M2.5
Depth Error
11.3 km
Pred. 6.9 km vs actual 4.4 km
Matched Event Location
-
Integrity & Provenance
Integrity Fingerprint (SHA-256)
RETROSPECTIVE
2c3319573c7ed6c73cce71be65ad664d6d73e77daec67b70f899a7dbd61c8d6a
This prediction was ingested before fingerprinting was introduced. The value above is a retrospective fingerprint computed from the current stored fields - it reflects the current state, not a preserved original snapshot. Future predictions will carry an immutable fingerprint set at ingestion time.
Prediction ID
20260518_072922_pred-38.43--116.46-20260607T2336
Evaluation Protocol
v1
Model Version
v1
Prediction Type
Prospective
Publication Batch (UTC)
May 18, 2026 14:29:28 PST
Source Batch
20260518_072922_prediction_JSON_file.json
First Recorded (UTC)
2026-06-18 07:45:41.418167+00:00
Amendment History
No amendments have been recorded for this prediction. Original values are unchanged.