Permanent Prediction Record
×
Window Elapsed
No Match Found
The forecast window has closed. No qualifying seismic event was recorded within the predicted parameters.
Predicted Magnitude
M2.8
18.6 miles North-West of Warm Springs
Original Prediction Parameters
Predicted Location
18.6 miles North-West of Warm Springs
38.4311°N, 116.5169°W
Forecast Time Window
5th of June 2026
Jun 05, 2026 16:35:28 PST
Predicted Magnitude
M2.8
Predicted value
Focal Depth
8.7 km
Below surface
Prediction Type
Prospective
Live forward-issued before the event
Lead Time
434h 6m
Advance notice before predicted event time
Location Map
Predicted epicentre
Matched Earthquake
⚠ Preliminary - subject to revision when the pipeline confirms the result
A recorded earthquake fell within every matching tolerance, so this prediction is graded a true positive. Each parameter below shows how close the match was.
Distance Error
50.4 km
Within 100 km tolerance
Time Error
17.1 h
Within 36 h tolerance
Magnitude Error
0.57
Predicted M2.77 vs actual M2.2
Depth Error
11.8 km
Pred. 8.7 km vs actual 3.1 km
Matched Event Location
-
Integrity & Provenance
Integrity Fingerprint (SHA-256)
RETROSPECTIVE
7bdc707f19deac9319394073d8b9a53a4c6ab0d5f73fa06727ab477fc44ed5c5
This prediction was ingested before fingerprinting was introduced. The value above is a retrospective fingerprint computed from the current stored fields - it reflects the current state, not a preserved original snapshot. Future predictions will carry an immutable fingerprint set at ingestion time.
Prediction ID
20260518_072922_pred-38.43--116.52-20260605T1635
Evaluation Protocol
v1
Model Version
v1
Prediction Type
Prospective
Publication Batch (UTC)
May 18, 2026 14:29:28 PST
Source Batch
20260518_072922_prediction_JSON_file.json
First Recorded (UTC)
2026-06-18 07:45:41.418167+00:00
Amendment History
No amendments have been recorded for this prediction. Original values are unchanged.