Permanent Prediction Record
×
Window Elapsed
No Match Found
The forecast window has closed. No qualifying seismic event was recorded within the predicted parameters.
Predicted Magnitude
M2.1
7.6 miles North-East of Geyserville
Original Prediction Parameters
Predicted Location
7.6 miles North-East of Geyserville
38.7965°N, 122.7998°W
Forecast Time Window
29th of May 2026
May 29, 2026 04:07:15 PST
Predicted Magnitude
M2.1
Predicted value
Focal Depth
9.6 km
Below surface
Prediction Type
Prospective
Live forward-issued before the event
Lead Time
253h 37m
Advance notice before predicted event time
Location Map
Predicted epicentre
Matched Earthquake
⚠ Preliminary - subject to revision when the pipeline confirms the result
A recorded earthquake fell within every matching tolerance, so this prediction is graded a true positive. Each parameter below shows how close the match was.
Distance Error
1.2 km
Within 100 km tolerance
Time Error
13.2 h
Within 36 h tolerance
Magnitude Error
0.20
Predicted M2.1 vs actual M2.3
Depth Error
11.4 km
Pred. 9.6 km vs actual 1.8 km
Matched Event Location
-
Integrity & Provenance
Integrity Fingerprint (SHA-256)
RETROSPECTIVE
faa65a84a46abfe3a355536a3bf594dbc4da22abe644c44a9788529a7b325849
This prediction was ingested before fingerprinting was introduced. The value above is a retrospective fingerprint computed from the current stored fields - it reflects the current state, not a preserved original snapshot. Future predictions will carry an immutable fingerprint set at ingestion time.
Prediction ID
20260518_072922_pred-38.80--122.80-20260529T0407
Evaluation Protocol
v1
Model Version
v1
Prediction Type
Prospective
Publication Batch (UTC)
May 18, 2026 14:29:28 PST
Source Batch
20260518_072922_prediction_JSON_file.json
First Recorded (UTC)
2026-06-18 07:45:41.418167+00:00
Amendment History
No amendments have been recorded for this prediction. Original values are unchanged.