Permanent Prediction Record
×
Window Elapsed
No Match Found
The forecast window has closed. No qualifying seismic event was recorded within the predicted parameters.
Predicted Magnitude
M2.1
18.3 miles West of Mendocino
Original Prediction Parameters
Predicted Location
18.3 miles West of Mendocino
39.2142°N, 124.1186°W
Forecast Time Window
2nd of June 2026
Jun 02, 2026 18:19:35 PST
Predicted Magnitude
M2.1
Predicted value
Focal Depth
9.0 km
Below surface
Prediction Type
Prospective
Live forward-issued before the event
Lead Time
363h 50m
Advance notice before predicted event time
Location Map
Predicted epicentre
Nearest Recorded Event
⚠ Preliminary - subject to revision when the pipeline confirms the result
This is the recorded earthquake closest to qualifying. It fell outside one or more tolerances, so the prediction is graded a false positive. Parameters within tolerance are shown in green; those outside are in red.
Distance Error
128.2 km
28.2 km over 100 km limit
Time Error
5.1 h
Within 36 h tolerance
Magnitude Error
0.06
Predicted M2.14 vs actual M2.2
Depth Error
29.9 km
Pred. 9.0 km vs actual 20.9 km
Nearest Event Location
-
Integrity & Provenance
Integrity Fingerprint (SHA-256)
RETROSPECTIVE
72d8c9ab0207bde3ab29251c5bd8458bc76225e3294c548cc9f5dc06e95ef7f4
This prediction was ingested before fingerprinting was introduced. The value above is a retrospective fingerprint computed from the current stored fields - it reflects the current state, not a preserved original snapshot. Future predictions will carry an immutable fingerprint set at ingestion time.
Prediction ID
20260518_072922_pred-39.21--124.12-20260602T1819
Evaluation Protocol
v1
Model Version
v1
Prediction Type
Prospective
Publication Batch (UTC)
May 18, 2026 14:29:28 PST
Source Batch
20260518_072922_prediction_JSON_file.json
First Recorded (UTC)
2026-06-18 07:45:41.418167+00:00
Amendment History
No amendments have been recorded for this prediction. Original values are unchanged.