Permanent Prediction Record
×
Window Elapsed
No Match Found
The forecast window has closed. No qualifying seismic event was recorded within the predicted parameters.
Predicted Magnitude
M2.3
4.3 miles North-East of Banning
Original Prediction Parameters
Predicted Location
4.3 miles North-East of Banning
33.9750°N, 116.8305°W
Forecast Time Window
19th of May 2026
May 19, 2026 03:23:50 PST
Predicted Magnitude
M2.3
Predicted value
Focal Depth
4.5 km
Below surface
Prediction Type
Prospective
Live forward-issued before the event
Lead Time
5h 56m
Advance notice before predicted event time
Location Map
Predicted epicentre
Matched Earthquake
⚠ Preliminary - subject to revision when the pipeline confirms the result
A recorded earthquake fell within every matching tolerance, so this prediction is graded a true positive. Each parameter below shows how close the match was.
Distance Error
7.2 km
Within 100 km tolerance
Time Error
6.8 h
Within 36 h tolerance
Magnitude Error
0.07
Predicted M2.27 vs actual M2.2
Depth Error
14.8 km
Pred. 4.5 km vs actual 10.3 km
Matched Event Location
-
Integrity & Provenance
Integrity Fingerprint (SHA-256)
RETROSPECTIVE
fe0cf5799cfff1a44def779e157f79a9a6901fe07956c2a57b2a72696bb25cc9
This prediction was ingested before fingerprinting was introduced. The value above is a retrospective fingerprint computed from the current stored fields - it reflects the current state, not a preserved original snapshot. Future predictions will carry an immutable fingerprint set at ingestion time.
Prediction ID
20260518_142709_pred-33.98--116.83-20260519T0323
Evaluation Protocol
v1
Model Version
v1
Prediction Type
Prospective
Publication Batch (UTC)
May 18, 2026 21:27:15 PST
Source Batch
20260518_142709_prediction_JSON_file.json
First Recorded (UTC)
2026-06-18 07:45:43.925602+00:00
Amendment History
No amendments have been recorded for this prediction. Original values are unchanged.