Permanent Prediction Record
×
Window Elapsed
No Match Found
The forecast window has closed. No qualifying seismic event was recorded within the predicted parameters.
Predicted Magnitude
M2.5
11.3 miles North of Clear Lake
Original Prediction Parameters
Predicted Location
11.3 miles North of Clear Lake
39.2076°N, 122.8051°W
Forecast Time Window
19th of May 2026
May 19, 2026 04:39:26 PST
Predicted Magnitude
M2.5
Predicted value
Focal Depth
4.2 km
Below surface
Prediction Type
Prospective
Live forward-issued before the event
Lead Time
7h 12m
Advance notice before predicted event time
Location Map
Predicted epicentre
Matched Earthquake
⚠ Preliminary - subject to revision when the pipeline confirms the result
A recorded earthquake fell within every matching tolerance, so this prediction is graded a true positive. Each parameter below shows how close the match was.
Distance Error
30.2 km
Within 100 km tolerance
Time Error
18.6 h
Within 36 h tolerance
Magnitude Error
0.15
Predicted M2.45 vs actual M2.3
Depth Error
9.6 km
Pred. 4.2 km vs actual 5.4 km
Matched Event Location
-
Integrity & Provenance
Integrity Fingerprint (SHA-256)
RETROSPECTIVE
f342a9f0ece338c022a226d281d430aa2e0e062cc4e3a234d2917a690aaea310
This prediction was ingested before fingerprinting was introduced. The value above is a retrospective fingerprint computed from the current stored fields - it reflects the current state, not a preserved original snapshot. Future predictions will carry an immutable fingerprint set at ingestion time.
Prediction ID
20260518_142709_pred-39.21--122.81-20260519T0439
Evaluation Protocol
v1
Model Version
v1
Prediction Type
Prospective
Publication Batch (UTC)
May 18, 2026 21:27:15 PST
Source Batch
20260518_142709_prediction_JSON_file.json
First Recorded (UTC)
2026-06-18 07:45:43.925602+00:00
Amendment History
No amendments have been recorded for this prediction. Original values are unchanged.