Permanent Prediction Record
×
Window Elapsed
No Match Found
The forecast window has closed. No qualifying seismic event was recorded within the predicted parameters.
Predicted Magnitude
M2.0
11.3 miles South-East of Silver Springs
Original Prediction Parameters
Predicted Location
11.3 miles South-East of Silver Springs
39.3005°N, 119.0651°W
Forecast Time Window
31st of May 2026
May 31, 2026 18:51:11 PST
Predicted Magnitude
M2.0
Predicted value
Focal Depth
4.2 km
Below surface
Prediction Type
Prospective
Live forward-issued before the event
Lead Time
309h 23m
Advance notice before predicted event time
Location Map
Predicted epicentre
Matched Earthquake
⚠ Preliminary - subject to revision when the pipeline confirms the result
A recorded earthquake fell within every matching tolerance, so this prediction is graded a true positive. Each parameter below shows how close the match was.
Distance Error
6.1 km
Within 100 km tolerance
Time Error
8.6 h
Within 36 h tolerance
Magnitude Error
0.12
Predicted M1.98 vs actual M2.1
Depth Error
11.3 km
Pred. 4.2 km vs actual 7.1 km
Matched Event Location
-
Integrity & Provenance
Integrity Fingerprint (SHA-256)
RETROSPECTIVE
172411b971c9acd84eb707d7686fbf98875c6c59c44244550d9451b1d03bc1f9
This prediction was ingested before fingerprinting was introduced. The value above is a retrospective fingerprint computed from the current stored fields - it reflects the current state, not a preserved original snapshot. Future predictions will carry an immutable fingerprint set at ingestion time.
Prediction ID
20260518_142709_pred-39.30--119.07-20260531T1851
Evaluation Protocol
v1
Model Version
v1
Prediction Type
Prospective
Publication Batch (UTC)
May 18, 2026 21:27:15 PST
Source Batch
20260518_142709_prediction_JSON_file.json
First Recorded (UTC)
2026-06-18 07:45:43.925602+00:00
Amendment History
No amendments have been recorded for this prediction. Original values are unchanged.