Permanent Prediction Record
×
Window Elapsed
No Match Found
The forecast window has closed. No qualifying seismic event was recorded within the predicted parameters.
Predicted Magnitude
M2.5
11.3 miles North of Clear Lake
Original Prediction Parameters
Predicted Location
11.3 miles North of Clear Lake
39.2076°N, 122.8051°W
Forecast Time Window
11th of August 2026
Aug 11, 2026 13:10:23 PST
Predicted Magnitude
M2.5
Predicted value
Focal Depth
4.2 km
Below surface
Prediction Type
Prospective
Live forward-issued before the event
Lead Time
2031h 37m
Advance notice before predicted event time
Location Map
Predicted epicentre
Matched Earthquake
⚠ Preliminary - subject to revision when the pipeline confirms the result
A recorded earthquake fell within every matching tolerance, so this prediction is graded a true positive. Each parameter below shows how close the match was.
Distance Error
43.1 km
Within 100 km tolerance
Time Error
4.2 h
Within 36 h tolerance
Magnitude Error
0.05
Predicted M2.45 vs actual M2.4
Depth Error
7.1 km
Pred. 4.2 km vs actual 2.9 km
Matched Event Location
-
Integrity & Provenance
Integrity Fingerprint (SHA-256)
RETROSPECTIVE
17a41e2c60fe20416011eaca6bdfc3132e40f8f32a0b99590537e331ecdfecbb
This prediction was ingested before fingerprinting was introduced. The value above is a retrospective fingerprint computed from the current stored fields - it reflects the current state, not a preserved original snapshot. Future predictions will carry an immutable fingerprint set at ingestion time.
Prediction ID
20260518_143243_pred-39.21--122.81-20260811T1310
Evaluation Protocol
v1
Model Version
v1
Prediction Type
Prospective
Publication Batch (UTC)
May 18, 2026 21:32:48 PST
Source Batch
20260518_143243_prediction_JSON_file.json
First Recorded (UTC)
2026-06-18 07:45:46.582270+00:00
Amendment History
No amendments have been recorded for this prediction. Original values are unchanged.