Permanent Prediction Record
×
Window Elapsed
No Match Found
The forecast window has closed. No qualifying seismic event was recorded within the predicted parameters.
Predicted Magnitude
M2.8
4.8 miles South-East of Forest Falls
Original Prediction Parameters
Predicted Location
4.8 miles South-East of Forest Falls
34.0579°N, 116.8416°W
Forecast Time Window
31st of May 2026
May 31, 2026 16:36:07 PST
Predicted Magnitude
M2.8
Predicted value
Focal Depth
2.0 km
Below surface
Prediction Type
Prospective
Live forward-issued before the event
Lead Time
306h 48m
Advance notice before predicted event time
Location Map
Predicted epicentre
Matched Earthquake
⚠ Preliminary - subject to revision when the pipeline confirms the result
A recorded earthquake fell within every matching tolerance, so this prediction is graded a true positive. Each parameter below shows how close the match was.
Distance Error
25.3 km
Within 100 km tolerance
Time Error
14.0 h
Within 36 h tolerance
Magnitude Error
0.70
Predicted M2.8 vs actual M2.1
Depth Error
15.5 km
Pred. 2.0 km vs actual 13.5 km
Matched Event Location
-
Integrity & Provenance
Integrity Fingerprint (SHA-256)
RETROSPECTIVE
1682062a68314aaa29ac7fd719ad67717e33d95c0faecab80a29cd80a252573f
This prediction was ingested before fingerprinting was introduced. The value above is a retrospective fingerprint computed from the current stored fields - it reflects the current state, not a preserved original snapshot. Future predictions will carry an immutable fingerprint set at ingestion time.
Prediction ID
20260518_144708_pred-34.06--116.84-20260531T1636
Evaluation Protocol
v1
Model Version
v1
Prediction Type
Prospective
Publication Batch (UTC)
May 18, 2026 21:47:14 PST
Source Batch
20260518_144708_prediction_JSON_file.json
First Recorded (UTC)
2026-06-18 07:45:47.473514+00:00
Amendment History
No amendments have been recorded for this prediction. Original values are unchanged.