Permanent Prediction Record
×
Window Elapsed
No Match Found
The forecast window has closed. No qualifying seismic event was recorded within the predicted parameters.
Predicted Magnitude
M2.2
23.5 miles North of Warm Springs
Original Prediction Parameters
Predicted Location
23.5 miles North of Warm Springs
38.5192°N, 116.3109°W
Forecast Time Window
30th of May 2026
May 30, 2026 11:05:04 PST
Predicted Magnitude
M2.2
Predicted value
Focal Depth
5.0 km
Below surface
Prediction Type
Prospective
Live forward-issued before the event
Lead Time
268h 47m
Advance notice before predicted event time
Location Map
Predicted epicentre
Matched Earthquake
⚠ Preliminary - subject to revision when the pipeline confirms the result
A recorded earthquake fell within every matching tolerance, so this prediction is graded a true positive. Each parameter below shows how close the match was.
Distance Error
19.8 km
Within 100 km tolerance
Time Error
18.3 h
Within 36 h tolerance
Magnitude Error
0.12
Predicted M2.18 vs actual M2.3
Depth Error
7.8 km
Pred. 5.0 km vs actual 2.8 km
Matched Event Location
-
Integrity & Provenance
Integrity Fingerprint (SHA-256)
RETROSPECTIVE
d18f5637850a77e35fcd3f4839861a4c4730eadccdf6a3561929c5ddbeda7570
This prediction was ingested before fingerprinting was introduced. The value above is a retrospective fingerprint computed from the current stored fields - it reflects the current state, not a preserved original snapshot. Future predictions will carry an immutable fingerprint set at ingestion time.
Prediction ID
20260518_231731_pred-38.52--116.31-20260530T1105
Evaluation Protocol
v1
Model Version
v1
Prediction Type
Prospective
Publication Batch (UTC)
May 19, 2026 06:17:36 PST
Source Batch
20260518_231731_prediction_JSON_file.json
First Recorded (UTC)
2026-06-18 07:45:49.262018+00:00
Amendment History
No amendments have been recorded for this prediction. Original values are unchanged.