Permanent Prediction Record
×
Window Elapsed
No Match Found
The forecast window has closed. No qualifying seismic event was recorded within the predicted parameters.
Predicted Magnitude
M2.1
11.9 miles North-East of Lake Berryessa
Original Prediction Parameters
Predicted Location
11.9 miles North-East of Lake Berryessa
38.7303°N, 122.1021°W
Forecast Time Window
9th of June 2026
Jun 09, 2026 21:20:05 PST
Predicted Magnitude
M2.1
Predicted value
Focal Depth
3.9 km
Below surface
Prediction Type
Prospective
Live forward-issued before the event
Lead Time
519h 2m
Advance notice before predicted event time
Location Map
Predicted epicentre
Matched Earthquake
⚠ Preliminary - subject to revision when the pipeline confirms the result
A recorded earthquake fell within every matching tolerance, so this prediction is graded a true positive. Each parameter below shows how close the match was.
Distance Error
84.6 km
Within 100 km tolerance
Time Error
0.5 h
Within 36 h tolerance
Magnitude Error
0.27
Predicted M2.13 vs actual M2.4
Depth Error
21.3 km
Pred. 3.9 km vs actual 17.4 km
Matched Event Location
-
Integrity & Provenance
Integrity Fingerprint (SHA-256)
RETROSPECTIVE
66e98b4b46da449f0a51437dc1ddc28d1494151b31c737c99e0cc42ecc6c1818
This prediction was ingested before fingerprinting was introduced. The value above is a retrospective fingerprint computed from the current stored fields - it reflects the current state, not a preserved original snapshot. Future predictions will carry an immutable fingerprint set at ingestion time.
Prediction ID
20260518_231731_pred-38.73--122.10-20260609T2120
Evaluation Protocol
v1
Model Version
v1
Prediction Type
Prospective
Publication Batch (UTC)
May 19, 2026 06:17:36 PST
Source Batch
20260518_231731_prediction_JSON_file.json
First Recorded (UTC)
2026-06-18 07:45:49.262018+00:00
Amendment History
No amendments have been recorded for this prediction. Original values are unchanged.