Permanent Prediction Record
×
Window Elapsed
No Match Found
The forecast window has closed. No qualifying seismic event was recorded within the predicted parameters.
Predicted Magnitude
M3.3
5.2 miles North of Oceanside
Original Prediction Parameters
Predicted Location
5.2 miles North of Oceanside
33.2669°N, 117.4087°W
Forecast Time Window
31st of May 2026
May 31, 2026 00:05:24 PST
Predicted Magnitude
M3.3
Predicted value
Focal Depth
1.8 km
Below surface
Prediction Type
Prospective
Live forward-issued before the event
Lead Time
273h 42m
Advance notice before predicted event time
Location Map
Predicted epicentre
Nearest Recorded Event
⚠ Preliminary - subject to revision when the pipeline confirms the result
This is the recorded earthquake closest to qualifying. It fell outside one or more tolerances, so the prediction is graded a false positive. Parameters within tolerance are shown in green; those outside are in red.
Distance Error
212.0 km
112.0 km over 100 km limit
Time Error
5.5 h
Within 36 h tolerance
Magnitude Error
0.18
Predicted M3.28 vs actual M3.1
Depth Error
21.8 km
Pred. 1.8 km vs actual 20.0 km
Nearest Event Location
-
Integrity & Provenance
Integrity Fingerprint (SHA-256)
RETROSPECTIVE
aebe65eadd088853c6746bdc8d17a52063883f4566df2399a2a2c5094fbadb6f
This prediction was ingested before fingerprinting was introduced. The value above is a retrospective fingerprint computed from the current stored fields - it reflects the current state, not a preserved original snapshot. Future predictions will carry an immutable fingerprint set at ingestion time.
Prediction ID
20260519_072241_pred-33.27--117.41-20260531T0005
Evaluation Protocol
v1
Model Version
v1
Prediction Type
Prospective
Publication Batch (UTC)
May 19, 2026 14:22:46 PST
Source Batch
20260519_072241_prediction_JSON_file.json
First Recorded (UTC)
2026-06-18 07:45:36.010229+00:00
Amendment History
No amendments have been recorded for this prediction. Original values are unchanged.