Permanent Prediction Record
×
Window Elapsed
No Match Found
The forecast window has closed. No qualifying seismic event was recorded within the predicted parameters.
Predicted Magnitude
M3.1
27.8 miles North-West of Winnemucca
Original Prediction Parameters
Predicted Location
27.8 miles North-West of Winnemucca
41.1665°N, 118.2028°W
Forecast Time Window
24th of July 2026
Jul 24, 2026 09:57:14 PST
Predicted Magnitude
M3.1
Predicted value
Focal Depth
5.4 km
Below surface
Prediction Type
Prospective
Live forward-issued before the event
Lead Time
1579h 34m
Advance notice before predicted event time
Location Map
Predicted epicentre
Nearest Recorded Event
⚠ Preliminary - subject to revision when the pipeline confirms the result
This is the recorded earthquake closest to qualifying. It fell outside one or more tolerances, so the prediction is graded a false positive. Parameters within tolerance are shown in green; those outside are in red.
Distance Error
231.9 km
131.9 km over 100 km limit
Time Error
13.4 h
Within 36 h tolerance
Magnitude Error
0.93
Predicted M3.13 vs actual M2.2
Depth Error
14.3 km
Pred. 5.4 km vs actual 8.9 km
Nearest Event Location
-
Integrity & Provenance
Integrity Fingerprint (SHA-256)
RETROSPECTIVE
4a89945e092b504105cf9f9800d3ca54a619594b97bbad08ad33eecf2f981e31
This prediction was ingested before fingerprinting was introduced. The value above is a retrospective fingerprint computed from the current stored fields - it reflects the current state, not a preserved original snapshot. Future predictions will carry an immutable fingerprint set at ingestion time.
Prediction ID
20260519_072241_pred-41.17--118.20-20260724T0957
Evaluation Protocol
v1
Model Version
v1
Prediction Type
Prospective
Publication Batch (UTC)
May 19, 2026 14:22:46 PST
Source Batch
20260519_072241_prediction_JSON_file.json
First Recorded (UTC)
2026-06-18 07:45:36.010229+00:00
Amendment History
No amendments have been recorded for this prediction. Original values are unchanged.