Permanent Prediction Record
×
Window Elapsed
No Match Found
The forecast window has closed. No qualifying seismic event was recorded within the predicted parameters.
Predicted Magnitude
M3.3
5.2 miles North of Oceanside
Original Prediction Parameters
Predicted Location
5.2 miles North of Oceanside
33.2669°N, 117.4087°W
Forecast Time Window
15th of May 2026
May 15, 2026 22:43:27 PST
Predicted Magnitude
M3.3
Predicted value
Focal Depth
1.8 km
Below surface
Prediction Type
Prospective
Live forward-issued before the event
Location Map
Predicted epicentre
Matched Earthquake
⚠ Preliminary - subject to revision when the pipeline confirms the result
A recorded earthquake fell within every matching tolerance, so this prediction is graded a true positive. Each parameter below shows how close the match was.
Distance Error
95.7 km
Within 100 km tolerance
Time Error
5.5 h
Within 36 h tolerance
Magnitude Error
0.68
Predicted M3.28 vs actual M2.6
Depth Error
26.9 km
Pred. 1.8 km vs actual 25.1 km
Matched Event Location
-
Integrity & Provenance
Integrity Fingerprint (SHA-256)
RETROSPECTIVE
7206d7d8b5fb036ef0d35799c48bdbc1e60b899fe9f3a4b96506a8a17f82ac3f
This prediction was ingested before fingerprinting was introduced. The value above is a retrospective fingerprint computed from the current stored fields - it reflects the current state, not a preserved original snapshot. Future predictions will carry an immutable fingerprint set at ingestion time.
Prediction ID
20260519_072430_pred-33.27--117.41-20260515T2243
Evaluation Protocol
v1
Model Version
v1
Prediction Type
Prospective
Publication Batch (UTC)
May 19, 2026 14:24:36 PST
Source Batch
20260519_072430_prediction_JSON_file.json
First Recorded (UTC)
2026-06-18 07:45:37.015943+00:00
Amendment History
No amendments have been recorded for this prediction. Original values are unchanged.