Permanent Prediction Record
×
Window Elapsed
No Match Found
The forecast window has closed. No qualifying seismic event was recorded within the predicted parameters.
Predicted Magnitude
M3.3
1.3 miles East of Lytle Creek
Original Prediction Parameters
Predicted Location
1.3 miles East of Lytle Creek
34.2522°N, 117.4865°W
Forecast Time Window
31st of May 2026
May 31, 2026 00:05:24 PST
Predicted Magnitude
M3.3
Predicted value
Focal Depth
1.8 km
Below surface
Prediction Type
Prospective
Live forward-issued before the event
Lead Time
266h 39m
Advance notice before predicted event time
Location Map
Predicted epicentre
Nearest Recorded Event
⚠ Preliminary - subject to revision when the pipeline confirms the result
This is the recorded earthquake closest to qualifying. It fell outside one or more tolerances, so the prediction is graded a false positive. Parameters within tolerance are shown in green; those outside are in red.
Distance Error
118.9 km
18.9 km over 100 km limit
Time Error
22.2 h
Within 36 h tolerance
Magnitude Error
0.08
Predicted M3.28 vs actual M3.2
Depth Error
11.8 km
Pred. 1.8 km vs actual 10.0 km
Nearest Event Location
-
Integrity & Provenance
Integrity Fingerprint (SHA-256)
RETROSPECTIVE
fc20bc26713f5798fb62067ab310f28f104391439c08acd91097659d972aaeb8
This prediction was ingested before fingerprinting was introduced. The value above is a retrospective fingerprint computed from the current stored fields - it reflects the current state, not a preserved original snapshot. Future predictions will carry an immutable fingerprint set at ingestion time.
Prediction ID
20260519_142606_pred-34.25--117.49-20260531T0005
Evaluation Protocol
v1
Model Version
v1
Prediction Type
Prospective
Publication Batch (UTC)
May 19, 2026 21:26:12 PST
Source Batch
20260519_142606_prediction_JSON_file.json
First Recorded (UTC)
2026-06-18 07:45:37.981306+00:00
Amendment History
No amendments have been recorded for this prediction. Original values are unchanged.