Permanent Prediction Record
×
Window Elapsed
No Match Found
The forecast window has closed. No qualifying seismic event was recorded within the predicted parameters.
Predicted Magnitude
M3.4
23.3 miles South of Tracy
Original Prediction Parameters
Predicted Location
23.3 miles South of Tracy
37.4210°N, 121.2888°W
Forecast Time Window
10th of August 2026
Aug 10, 2026 06:00:21 PST
Predicted Magnitude
M3.4
Predicted value
Focal Depth
7.3 km
Below surface
Prediction Type
Prospective
Live forward-issued before the event
Lead Time
1976h 34m
Advance notice before predicted event time
Location Map
Predicted epicentre
Matched Earthquake
⚠ Preliminary - subject to revision when the pipeline confirms the result
A recorded earthquake fell within every matching tolerance, so this prediction is graded a true positive. Each parameter below shows how close the match was.
Distance Error
96.2 km
Within 100 km tolerance
Time Error
3.4 h
Within 36 h tolerance
Magnitude Error
0.50
Predicted M3.4 vs actual M2.9
Depth Error
12.3 km
Pred. 7.3 km vs actual 5.0 km
Matched Event Location
-
Integrity & Provenance
Integrity Fingerprint (SHA-256)
RETROSPECTIVE
2dad629c534abb5cfa4332decd903fd967497a1929637b5c8049b43aafe34abc
This prediction was ingested before fingerprinting was introduced. The value above is a retrospective fingerprint computed from the current stored fields - it reflects the current state, not a preserved original snapshot. Future predictions will carry an immutable fingerprint set at ingestion time.
Prediction ID
20260519_142606_pred-37.42--121.29-20260810T0600
Evaluation Protocol
v1
Model Version
v1
Prediction Type
Prospective
Publication Batch (UTC)
May 19, 2026 21:26:12 PST
Source Batch
20260519_142606_prediction_JSON_file.json
First Recorded (UTC)
2026-06-18 07:45:37.981306+00:00
Amendment History
No amendments have been recorded for this prediction. Original values are unchanged.