Permanent Prediction Record
×
Window Elapsed
No Match Found
The forecast window has closed. No qualifying seismic event was recorded within the predicted parameters.
Predicted Magnitude
M3.4
5.0 miles West of Calipatria
Original Prediction Parameters
Predicted Location
5.0 miles West of Calipatria
33.1443°N, 115.5979°W
Forecast Time Window
5th of August 2026
Aug 05, 2026 23:14:33 PST
Predicted Magnitude
M3.4
Predicted value
Focal Depth
4.9 km
Below surface
Prediction Type
Prospective
Live forward-issued before the event
Lead Time
1873h 46m
Advance notice before predicted event time
Location Map
Predicted epicentre
Nearest Recorded Event
⚠ Preliminary - subject to revision when the pipeline confirms the result
This is the recorded earthquake closest to qualifying. It fell outside one or more tolerances, so the prediction is graded a false positive. Parameters within tolerance are shown in green; those outside are in red.
Distance Error
134.6 km
34.6 km over 100 km limit
Time Error
13.9 h
Within 36 h tolerance
Magnitude Error
0.15
Predicted M3.45 vs actual M3.3
Depth Error
26.9 km
Pred. 4.9 km vs actual 22.0 km
Nearest Event Location
-
Integrity & Provenance
Integrity Fingerprint (SHA-256)
RETROSPECTIVE
df811fa6a7ed8c06181899e4d6c2066d745e024a095867c724f99762d4e7c294
This prediction was ingested before fingerprinting was introduced. The value above is a retrospective fingerprint computed from the current stored fields - it reflects the current state, not a preserved original snapshot. Future predictions will carry an immutable fingerprint set at ingestion time.
Prediction ID
20260519_142756_pred-33.14--115.60-20260805T2314
Evaluation Protocol
v1
Model Version
v1
Prediction Type
Prospective
Publication Batch (UTC)
May 19, 2026 21:28:00 PST
Source Batch
20260519_142756_prediction_JSON_file.json
First Recorded (UTC)
2026-06-18 07:45:38.949303+00:00
Amendment History
No amendments have been recorded for this prediction. Original values are unchanged.