Permanent Prediction Record
×
Window Elapsed
No Match Found
The forecast window has closed. No qualifying seismic event was recorded within the predicted parameters.
Predicted Magnitude
M3.2
6.0 miles North-West of Calipatria
Original Prediction Parameters
Predicted Location
6.0 miles North-West of Calipatria
33.1605°N, 115.6087°W
Forecast Time Window
5th of August 2026
Aug 05, 2026 18:02:48 PST
Predicted Magnitude
M3.2
Predicted value
Focal Depth
3.5 km
Below surface
Prediction Type
Prospective
Live forward-issued before the event
Lead Time
1868h 34m
Advance notice before predicted event time
Location Map
Predicted epicentre
Matched Earthquake
⚠ Preliminary - subject to revision when the pipeline confirms the result
A recorded earthquake fell within every matching tolerance, so this prediction is graded a true positive. Each parameter below shows how close the match was.
Distance Error
92.4 km
Within 100 km tolerance
Time Error
24.5 h
Within 36 h tolerance
Magnitude Error
0.75
Predicted M3.15 vs actual M2.4
Depth Error
14.3 km
Pred. 3.5 km vs actual 10.8 km
Matched Event Location
-
Integrity & Provenance
Integrity Fingerprint (SHA-256)
RETROSPECTIVE
394638b428db6f1f3b7b288b36d485f5cc649da0a0795e957e75033b77a11616
This prediction was ingested before fingerprinting was introduced. The value above is a retrospective fingerprint computed from the current stored fields - it reflects the current state, not a preserved original snapshot. Future predictions will carry an immutable fingerprint set at ingestion time.
Prediction ID
20260519_142756_pred-33.16--115.61-20260805T1802
Evaluation Protocol
v1
Model Version
v1
Prediction Type
Prospective
Publication Batch (UTC)
May 19, 2026 21:28:00 PST
Source Batch
20260519_142756_prediction_JSON_file.json
First Recorded (UTC)
2026-06-18 07:45:38.949303+00:00
Amendment History
No amendments have been recorded for this prediction. Original values are unchanged.