Permanent Prediction Record
×
Window Elapsed
No Match Found
The forecast window has closed. No qualifying seismic event was recorded within the predicted parameters.
Predicted Magnitude
M3.3
1.3 miles East of Lytle Creek
Original Prediction Parameters
Predicted Location
1.3 miles East of Lytle Creek
34.2522°N, 117.4865°W
Forecast Time Window
15th of May 2026
May 15, 2026 22:43:27 PST
Predicted Magnitude
M3.3
Predicted value
Focal Depth
1.8 km
Below surface
Prediction Type
Prospective
Live forward-issued before the event
Location Map
Predicted epicentre
Matched Earthquake
⚠ Preliminary - subject to revision when the pipeline confirms the result
A recorded earthquake fell within every matching tolerance, so this prediction is graded a true positive. Each parameter below shows how close the match was.
Distance Error
52.2 km
Within 100 km tolerance
Time Error
5.5 h
Within 36 h tolerance
Magnitude Error
0.68
Predicted M3.28 vs actual M2.6
Depth Error
26.9 km
Pred. 1.8 km vs actual 25.1 km
Matched Event Location
-
Integrity & Provenance
Integrity Fingerprint (SHA-256)
RETROSPECTIVE
a87a3cba99c49dcc366a45deac4da776c5e6ceb88d93435917a3acb51d63817c
This prediction was ingested before fingerprinting was introduced. The value above is a retrospective fingerprint computed from the current stored fields - it reflects the current state, not a preserved original snapshot. Future predictions will carry an immutable fingerprint set at ingestion time.
Prediction ID
20260519_142756_pred-34.25--117.49-20260515T2243
Evaluation Protocol
v1
Model Version
v1
Prediction Type
Prospective
Publication Batch (UTC)
May 19, 2026 21:28:00 PST
Source Batch
20260519_142756_prediction_JSON_file.json
First Recorded (UTC)
2026-06-18 07:45:38.949303+00:00
Amendment History
No amendments have been recorded for this prediction. Original values are unchanged.