Permanent Prediction Record
×
Window Elapsed
No Match Found
The forecast window has closed. No qualifying seismic event was recorded within the predicted parameters.
Predicted Magnitude
M3.1
28.3 miles West of Tuscarora
Original Prediction Parameters
Predicted Location
28.3 miles West of Tuscarora
41.1502°N, 116.7369°W
Forecast Time Window
9th of July 2026
Jul 09, 2026 08:35:18 PST
Predicted Magnitude
M3.1
Predicted value
Focal Depth
5.4 km
Below surface
Prediction Type
Prospective
Live forward-issued before the event
Lead Time
1211h 7m
Advance notice before predicted event time
Location Map
Predicted epicentre
Nearest Recorded Event
⚠ Preliminary - subject to revision when the pipeline confirms the result
This is the recorded earthquake closest to qualifying. It fell outside one or more tolerances, so the prediction is graded a false positive. Parameters within tolerance are shown in green; those outside are in red.
Distance Error
171.7 km
71.7 km over 100 km limit
Time Error
22.8 h
Within 36 h tolerance
Magnitude Error
0.83
Predicted M3.13 vs actual M2.3
Depth Error
10.3 km
Pred. 5.4 km vs actual 4.9 km
Nearest Event Location
-
Integrity & Provenance
Integrity Fingerprint (SHA-256)
RETROSPECTIVE
801136e2995495179c4fee0fc86c68041fc0f8844d3f964d02f75f651a2098a9
This prediction was ingested before fingerprinting was introduced. The value above is a retrospective fingerprint computed from the current stored fields - it reflects the current state, not a preserved original snapshot. Future predictions will carry an immutable fingerprint set at ingestion time.
Prediction ID
20260519_142756_pred-41.15--116.74-20260709T0835
Evaluation Protocol
v1
Model Version
v1
Prediction Type
Prospective
Publication Batch (UTC)
May 19, 2026 21:28:00 PST
Source Batch
20260519_142756_prediction_JSON_file.json
First Recorded (UTC)
2026-06-18 07:45:38.949303+00:00
Amendment History
No amendments have been recorded for this prediction. Original values are unchanged.