Permanent Prediction Record
×
Window Elapsed
No Match Found
The forecast window has closed. No qualifying seismic event was recorded within the predicted parameters.
Predicted Magnitude
M3.4
17.2 miles South-West of Modesto
Original Prediction Parameters
Predicted Location
17.2 miles South-West of Modesto
37.4332°N, 121.1738°W
Forecast Time Window
10th of August 2026
Aug 10, 2026 06:00:21 PST
Predicted Magnitude
M3.4
Predicted value
Focal Depth
7.3 km
Below surface
Prediction Type
Prospective
Live forward-issued before the event
Lead Time
1964h 23m
Advance notice before predicted event time
Location Map
Predicted epicentre
Matched Earthquake
⚠ Preliminary - subject to revision when the pipeline confirms the result
A recorded earthquake fell within every matching tolerance, so this prediction is graded a true positive. Each parameter below shows how close the match was.
Distance Error
97.3 km
Within 100 km tolerance
Time Error
3.4 h
Within 36 h tolerance
Magnitude Error
0.50
Predicted M3.4 vs actual M2.9
Depth Error
12.3 km
Pred. 7.3 km vs actual 5.0 km
Matched Event Location
-
Integrity & Provenance
Integrity Fingerprint (SHA-256)
RETROSPECTIVE
0694b8903e5c462c09c2a9eb9399648345553da03f37fa9c5f01abcf492672d0
This prediction was ingested before fingerprinting was introduced. The value above is a retrospective fingerprint computed from the current stored fields - it reflects the current state, not a preserved original snapshot. Future predictions will carry an immutable fingerprint set at ingestion time.
Prediction ID
20260520_023639_pred-37.43--121.17-20260810T0600
Evaluation Protocol
v1
Model Version
v1
Prediction Type
Prospective
Publication Batch (UTC)
May 20, 2026 09:36:44 PST
Source Batch
20260520_023639_prediction_JSON_file.json
First Recorded (UTC)
2026-06-18 07:45:15.068340+00:00
Amendment History
No amendments have been recorded for this prediction. Original values are unchanged.