Permanent Prediction Record
×
Window Elapsed
No Match Found
The forecast window has closed. No qualifying seismic event was recorded within the predicted parameters.
Predicted Magnitude
M3.1
7.5 miles South-West of Imlay
Original Prediction Parameters
Predicted Location
7.5 miles South-West of Imlay
40.5535°N, 118.2028°W
Forecast Time Window
24th of July 2026
Jul 24, 2026 09:57:14 PST
Predicted Magnitude
M3.1
Predicted value
Focal Depth
5.4 km
Below surface
Prediction Type
Prospective
Live forward-issued before the event
Lead Time
1560h 20m
Advance notice before predicted event time
Location Map
Predicted epicentre
Nearest Recorded Event
⚠ Preliminary - subject to revision when the pipeline confirms the result
This is the recorded earthquake closest to qualifying. It fell outside one or more tolerances, so the prediction is graded a false positive. Parameters within tolerance are shown in green; those outside are in red.
Distance Error
275.4 km
175.4 km over 100 km limit
Time Error
0.4 h
Within 36 h tolerance
Magnitude Error
0.43
Predicted M3.13 vs actual M2.7
Depth Error
12.8 km
Pred. 5.4 km vs actual 7.4 km
Nearest Event Location
-
Integrity & Provenance
Integrity Fingerprint (SHA-256)
RETROSPECTIVE
17c3cdb0249e0345e30cb5f6f9e5c9c7c9c55b4e4ac63fdc9cb254ebda1d247d
This prediction was ingested before fingerprinting was introduced. The value above is a retrospective fingerprint computed from the current stored fields - it reflects the current state, not a preserved original snapshot. Future predictions will carry an immutable fingerprint set at ingestion time.
Prediction ID
20260520_023639_pred-40.55--118.20-20260724T0957
Evaluation Protocol
v1
Model Version
v1
Prediction Type
Prospective
Publication Batch (UTC)
May 20, 2026 09:36:44 PST
Source Batch
20260520_023639_prediction_JSON_file.json
First Recorded (UTC)
2026-06-18 07:45:15.068340+00:00
Amendment History
No amendments have been recorded for this prediction. Original values are unchanged.