Permanent Prediction Record
×
Window Elapsed
No Match Found
The forecast window has closed. No qualifying seismic event was recorded within the predicted parameters.
Predicted Magnitude
M2.4
40.7 miles West of Mendocino
Original Prediction Parameters
Predicted Location
40.7 miles West of Mendocino
39.2670°N, 124.5580°W
Forecast Time Window
9th of June 2026
Jun 09, 2026 10:55:22 PST
Predicted Magnitude
M2.4
Predicted value
Focal Depth
12.2 km
Below surface
Prediction Type
Prospective
Live forward-issued before the event
Lead Time
475h 1m
Advance notice before predicted event time
Location Map
Predicted epicentre
Nearest Recorded Event
⚠ Preliminary - subject to revision when the pipeline confirms the result
This is the recorded earthquake closest to qualifying. It fell outside one or more tolerances, so the prediction is graded a false positive. Parameters within tolerance are shown in green; those outside are in red.
Distance Error
160.4 km
60.5 km over 100 km limit
Time Error
8.8 h
Within 36 h tolerance
Magnitude Error
0.06
Predicted M2.44 vs actual M2.5
Depth Error
17.2 km
Pred. 12.2 km vs actual 5.0 km
Nearest Event Location
-
Integrity & Provenance
Integrity Fingerprint (SHA-256)
RETROSPECTIVE
226c40d88db889337e5579fa4c53044f3eafd278091ebd46bab96e2af8cb74b7
This prediction was ingested before fingerprinting was introduced. The value above is a retrospective fingerprint computed from the current stored fields - it reflects the current state, not a preserved original snapshot. Future predictions will carry an immutable fingerprint set at ingestion time.
Prediction ID
20260520_085344_pred-39.27--124.56-20260609T1055
Evaluation Protocol
v1
Model Version
v1
Prediction Type
Prospective
Publication Batch (UTC)
May 20, 2026 15:53:49 PST
Source Batch
20260520_085344_prediction_JSON_file.json
First Recorded (UTC)
2026-06-18 07:45:16.025251+00:00
Amendment History
No amendments have been recorded for this prediction. Original values are unchanged.