Permanent Prediction Record
×
Window Elapsed
No Match Found
The forecast window has closed. No qualifying seismic event was recorded within the predicted parameters.
Predicted Magnitude
M2.6
15.5 miles South of Sierraville
Original Prediction Parameters
Predicted Location
15.5 miles South of Sierraville
39.3638°N, 120.4231°W
Forecast Time Window
7th of June 2026
Jun 07, 2026 08:42:36 PST
Predicted Magnitude
M2.6
Predicted value
Focal Depth
15.5 km
Below surface
Prediction Type
Prospective
Live forward-issued before the event
Lead Time
424h 48m
Advance notice before predicted event time
Location Map
Predicted epicentre
Matched Earthquake
⚠ Preliminary - subject to revision when the pipeline confirms the result
A recorded earthquake fell within every matching tolerance, so this prediction is graded a true positive. Each parameter below shows how close the match was.
Distance Error
61.9 km
Within 100 km tolerance
Time Error
6.3 h
Within 36 h tolerance
Magnitude Error
0.46
Predicted M2.56 vs actual M2.1
Depth Error
24.3 km
Pred. 15.5 km vs actual 8.8 km
Matched Event Location
-
Integrity & Provenance
Integrity Fingerprint (SHA-256)
RETROSPECTIVE
659991bde174dbc49190b885ef5291d6ab1eaeed65d2a7b4a7c365599ac259e4
This prediction was ingested before fingerprinting was introduced. The value above is a retrospective fingerprint computed from the current stored fields - it reflects the current state, not a preserved original snapshot. Future predictions will carry an immutable fingerprint set at ingestion time.
Prediction ID
20260520_085344_pred-39.36--120.42-20260607T0842
Evaluation Protocol
v1
Model Version
v1
Prediction Type
Prospective
Publication Batch (UTC)
May 20, 2026 15:53:49 PST
Source Batch
20260520_085344_prediction_JSON_file.json
First Recorded (UTC)
2026-06-18 07:45:16.025251+00:00
Amendment History
No amendments have been recorded for this prediction. Original values are unchanged.