Permanent Prediction Record
×
Window Elapsed
No Match Found
The forecast window has closed. No qualifying seismic event was recorded within the predicted parameters.
Predicted Magnitude
M2.7
2.2 miles North-West of Hayfork
Original Prediction Parameters
Predicted Location
2.2 miles North-West of Hayfork
40.5762°N, 123.2140°W
Forecast Time Window
9th of June 2026
Jun 09, 2026 09:57:02 PST
Predicted Magnitude
M2.7
Predicted value
Focal Depth
11.4 km
Below surface
Prediction Type
Prospective
Live forward-issued before the event
Lead Time
473h 49m
Advance notice before predicted event time
Location Map
Predicted epicentre
Matched Earthquake
⚠ Preliminary - subject to revision when the pipeline confirms the result
A recorded earthquake fell within every matching tolerance, so this prediction is graded a true positive. Each parameter below shows how close the match was.
Distance Error
93.5 km
Within 100 km tolerance
Time Error
17.7 h
Within 36 h tolerance
Magnitude Error
0.41
Predicted M2.71 vs actual M2.3
Depth Error
30.1 km
Pred. 11.4 km vs actual 18.7 km
Matched Event Location
-
Integrity & Provenance
Integrity Fingerprint (SHA-256)
RETROSPECTIVE
7e1a629749b25a4b3fd33756460016e9dfa5000b8031735c9c7f92a9a7dc2fc9
This prediction was ingested before fingerprinting was introduced. The value above is a retrospective fingerprint computed from the current stored fields - it reflects the current state, not a preserved original snapshot. Future predictions will carry an immutable fingerprint set at ingestion time.
Prediction ID
20260520_090713_pred-40.58--123.21-20260609T0957
Evaluation Protocol
v1
Model Version
v1
Prediction Type
Prospective
Publication Batch (UTC)
May 20, 2026 16:07:18 PST
Source Batch
20260520_090713_prediction_JSON_file.json
First Recorded (UTC)
2026-06-18 07:45:19.290873+00:00
Amendment History
No amendments have been recorded for this prediction. Original values are unchanged.