Permanent Prediction Record
×
Window Elapsed
No Match Found
The forecast window has closed. No qualifying seismic event was recorded within the predicted parameters.
Predicted Magnitude
M3.4
22.3 miles South of Tracy
Original Prediction Parameters
Predicted Location
22.3 miles South of Tracy
37.4333°N, 121.2965°W
Forecast Time Window
10th of August 2026
Aug 10, 2026 06:00:21 PST
Predicted Magnitude
M3.4
Predicted value
Focal Depth
7.3 km
Below surface
Prediction Type
Prospective
Live forward-issued before the event
Lead Time
1950h 25m
Advance notice before predicted event time
Location Map
Predicted epicentre
Matched Earthquake
⚠ Preliminary - subject to revision when the pipeline confirms the result
A recorded earthquake fell within every matching tolerance, so this prediction is graded a true positive. Each parameter below shows how close the match was.
Distance Error
97.6 km
Within 100 km tolerance
Time Error
3.4 h
Within 36 h tolerance
Magnitude Error
0.50
Predicted M3.4 vs actual M2.9
Depth Error
12.3 km
Pred. 7.3 km vs actual 5.0 km
Matched Event Location
-
Integrity & Provenance
Integrity Fingerprint (SHA-256)
RETROSPECTIVE
6d19a21aba9b2ff934ee88e89db803b1ffc5ddbe832e1ce45e7746ef9a90f8c7
This prediction was ingested before fingerprinting was introduced. The value above is a retrospective fingerprint computed from the current stored fields - it reflects the current state, not a preserved original snapshot. Future predictions will carry an immutable fingerprint set at ingestion time.
Prediction ID
20260520_163427_pred-37.43--121.30-20260810T0600
Evaluation Protocol
v1
Model Version
v1
Prediction Type
Prospective
Publication Batch (UTC)
May 20, 2026 23:34:32 PST
Source Batch
20260520_163427_prediction_JSON_file.json
First Recorded (UTC)
2026-06-18 07:45:31.534967+00:00
Amendment History
No amendments have been recorded for this prediction. Original values are unchanged.