Permanent Prediction Record
×
Window Elapsed
No Match Found
The forecast window has closed. No qualifying seismic event was recorded within the predicted parameters.
Predicted Magnitude
M3.1
27.3 miles North-West of Winnemucca
Original Prediction Parameters
Predicted Location
27.3 miles North-West of Winnemucca
41.1512°N, 118.2028°W
Forecast Time Window
24th of July 2026
Jul 24, 2026 09:57:14 PST
Predicted Magnitude
M3.1
Predicted value
Focal Depth
5.4 km
Below surface
Prediction Type
Prospective
Live forward-issued before the event
Lead Time
1546h 22m
Advance notice before predicted event time
Location Map
Predicted epicentre
Nearest Recorded Event
⚠ Preliminary - subject to revision when the pipeline confirms the result
This is the recorded earthquake closest to qualifying. It fell outside one or more tolerances, so the prediction is graded a false positive. Parameters within tolerance are shown in green; those outside are in red.
Distance Error
230.9 km
130.9 km over 100 km limit
Time Error
13.4 h
Within 36 h tolerance
Magnitude Error
0.93
Predicted M3.13 vs actual M2.2
Depth Error
14.3 km
Pred. 5.4 km vs actual 8.9 km
Nearest Event Location
-
Integrity & Provenance
Integrity Fingerprint (SHA-256)
RETROSPECTIVE
53a89fbd17a84b054565e2a7955d012e99ad31cb0c55307f52d4893e2be02ca8
This prediction was ingested before fingerprinting was introduced. The value above is a retrospective fingerprint computed from the current stored fields - it reflects the current state, not a preserved original snapshot. Future predictions will carry an immutable fingerprint set at ingestion time.
Prediction ID
20260520_163427_pred-41.15--118.20-20260724T0957
Evaluation Protocol
v1
Model Version
v1
Prediction Type
Prospective
Publication Batch (UTC)
May 20, 2026 23:34:32 PST
Source Batch
20260520_163427_prediction_JSON_file.json
First Recorded (UTC)
2026-06-18 07:45:31.534967+00:00
Amendment History
No amendments have been recorded for this prediction. Original values are unchanged.