Permanent Prediction Record
×
Window Elapsed
No Match Found
The forecast window has closed. No qualifying seismic event was recorded within the predicted parameters.
Predicted Magnitude
M3.3
1.9 miles North-East of Crestline
Original Prediction Parameters
Predicted Location
1.9 miles North-East of Crestline
34.2673°N, 117.2719°W
Forecast Time Window
15th of May 2026
May 15, 2026 22:43:27 PST
Predicted Magnitude
M3.3
Predicted value
Focal Depth
1.8 km
Below surface
Prediction Type
Prospective
Live forward-issued before the event
Location Map
Predicted epicentre
Matched Earthquake
⚠ Preliminary - subject to revision when the pipeline confirms the result
A recorded earthquake fell within every matching tolerance, so this prediction is graded a true positive. Each parameter below shows how close the match was.
Distance Error
70.3 km
Within 100 km tolerance
Time Error
5.5 h
Within 36 h tolerance
Magnitude Error
0.68
Predicted M3.28 vs actual M2.6
Depth Error
26.9 km
Pred. 1.8 km vs actual 25.1 km
Matched Event Location
-
Integrity & Provenance
Integrity Fingerprint (SHA-256)
RETROSPECTIVE
396c32d4cde43313f87359661ea15ea38270e7bf1e4def6e23ef33474f62062e
This prediction was ingested before fingerprinting was introduced. The value above is a retrospective fingerprint computed from the current stored fields - it reflects the current state, not a preserved original snapshot. Future predictions will carry an immutable fingerprint set at ingestion time.
Prediction ID
20260520_163617_pred-34.27--117.27-20260515T2243
Evaluation Protocol
v1
Model Version
v1
Prediction Type
Prospective
Publication Batch (UTC)
May 20, 2026 23:36:22 PST
Source Batch
20260520_163617_prediction_JSON_file.json
First Recorded (UTC)
2026-06-18 07:45:32.501561+00:00
Amendment History
No amendments have been recorded for this prediction. Original values are unchanged.