Permanent Prediction Record
×
Window Elapsed
No Match Found
The forecast window has closed. No qualifying seismic event was recorded within the predicted parameters.
Predicted Magnitude
M3.4
5.2 miles West of Calipatria
Original Prediction Parameters
Predicted Location
5.2 miles West of Calipatria
33.1436°N, 115.6007°W
Forecast Time Window
15th of May 2023
May 15, 2023 20:12:01 PST
Predicted Magnitude
M3.4
Predicted value
Focal Depth
4.9 km
Below surface
Prediction Type
Prospective
Live forward-issued before the event
Location Map
Predicted epicentre
Nearest Recorded Event
⚠ Preliminary - subject to revision when the pipeline confirms the result
This is the recorded earthquake closest to qualifying. It fell outside one or more tolerances, so the prediction is graded a false positive. Parameters within tolerance are shown in green; those outside are in red.
Distance Error
23.9 km
Within 100 km tolerance
Time Error
1.1 h
Within 36 h tolerance
Magnitude Error
1.45
Predicted M3.45 vs actual M2.0
- 0.45 over limit
Depth Error
26.9 km
Pred. 4.9 km vs actual 22.0 km
Nearest Event Location
-
Integrity & Provenance
Integrity Fingerprint (SHA-256)
RETROSPECTIVE
06c882dcfe9563124da459d7fba3aff698c810931ddb16e9c19017fc8d09b0c4
This prediction was ingested before fingerprinting was introduced. The value above is a retrospective fingerprint computed from the current stored fields - it reflects the current state, not a preserved original snapshot. Future predictions will carry an immutable fingerprint set at ingestion time.
Prediction ID
20260520_163808_pred-33.14--115.60-20230515T2012
Evaluation Protocol
v1
Model Version
v1
Prediction Type
Prospective
Publication Batch (UTC)
May 20, 2026 23:38:14 PST
Source Batch
20260520_163808_prediction_JSON_file.json
First Recorded (UTC)
2026-06-18 07:45:33.449388+00:00
Amendment History
No amendments have been recorded for this prediction. Original values are unchanged.