Permanent Prediction Record
×
Window Elapsed
No Match Found
The forecast window has closed. No qualifying seismic event was recorded within the predicted parameters.
Predicted Magnitude
M3.2
5.5 miles North-West of Calipatria
Original Prediction Parameters
Predicted Location
5.5 miles North-West of Calipatria
33.1563°N, 115.6023°W
Forecast Time Window
15th of May 2023
May 15, 2023 15:00:15 PST
Predicted Magnitude
M3.2
Predicted value
Focal Depth
3.5 km
Below surface
Prediction Type
Prospective
Live forward-issued before the event
Location Map
Predicted epicentre
Nearest Recorded Event
⚠ Preliminary - subject to revision when the pipeline confirms the result
This is the recorded earthquake closest to qualifying. It fell outside one or more tolerances, so the prediction is graded a false positive. Parameters within tolerance are shown in green; those outside are in red.
Distance Error
23.0 km
Within 100 km tolerance
Time Error
6.2 h
Within 36 h tolerance
Magnitude Error
1.15
Predicted M3.15 vs actual M2.0
- 0.15 over limit
Depth Error
25.5 km
Pred. 3.5 km vs actual 22.0 km
Nearest Event Location
-
Integrity & Provenance
Integrity Fingerprint (SHA-256)
RETROSPECTIVE
3d863635591a313133f75069f459c41be5d4d59cd7ed39fdc8c1763944791dac
This prediction was ingested before fingerprinting was introduced. The value above is a retrospective fingerprint computed from the current stored fields - it reflects the current state, not a preserved original snapshot. Future predictions will carry an immutable fingerprint set at ingestion time.
Prediction ID
20260520_163808_pred-33.16--115.60-20230515T1500
Evaluation Protocol
v1
Model Version
v1
Prediction Type
Prospective
Publication Batch (UTC)
May 20, 2026 23:38:14 PST
Source Batch
20260520_163808_prediction_JSON_file.json
First Recorded (UTC)
2026-06-18 07:45:33.449388+00:00
Amendment History
No amendments have been recorded for this prediction. Original values are unchanged.