Permanent Prediction Record
×
Window Elapsed
No Match Found
The forecast window has closed. No qualifying seismic event was recorded within the predicted parameters.
Predicted Magnitude
M3.3
1.9 miles North-East of Crestline
Original Prediction Parameters
Predicted Location
1.9 miles North-East of Crestline
34.2673°N, 117.2719°W
Forecast Time Window
22nd of February 2023
Feb 22, 2023 19:40:54 PST
Predicted Magnitude
M3.3
Predicted value
Focal Depth
1.8 km
Below surface
Prediction Type
Prospective
Live forward-issued before the event
Location Map
Predicted epicentre
Nearest Recorded Event
⚠ Preliminary - subject to revision when the pipeline confirms the result
This is the recorded earthquake closest to qualifying. It fell outside one or more tolerances, so the prediction is graded a false positive. Parameters within tolerance are shown in green; those outside are in red.
Distance Error
35.1 km
Within 100 km tolerance
Time Error
31.4 h
Within 36 h tolerance
Magnitude Error
1.18
Predicted M3.28 vs actual M2.1
- 0.18 over limit
Depth Error
18.8 km
Pred. 1.8 km vs actual 17.0 km
Nearest Event Location
-
Integrity & Provenance
Integrity Fingerprint (SHA-256)
RETROSPECTIVE
bf28f6f474d916a2e40a48a69e8ca8146b31fb6c85694afdecdf01d6f10d4954
This prediction was ingested before fingerprinting was introduced. The value above is a retrospective fingerprint computed from the current stored fields - it reflects the current state, not a preserved original snapshot. Future predictions will carry an immutable fingerprint set at ingestion time.
Prediction ID
20260520_163808_pred-34.27--117.27-20230222T1940
Evaluation Protocol
v1
Model Version
v1
Prediction Type
Prospective
Publication Batch (UTC)
May 20, 2026 23:38:14 PST
Source Batch
20260520_163808_prediction_JSON_file.json
First Recorded (UTC)
2026-06-18 07:45:33.449388+00:00
Amendment History
No amendments have been recorded for this prediction. Original values are unchanged.