Permanent Prediction Record
×
Window Elapsed
No Match Found
The forecast window has closed. No qualifying seismic event was recorded within the predicted parameters.
Predicted Magnitude
M3.4
8.7 miles East of Telescope Peak
Original Prediction Parameters
Predicted Location
8.7 miles East of Telescope Peak
36.1699°N, 116.9311°W
Forecast Time Window
24th of August 2023
Aug 24, 2023 02:36:30 PST
Predicted Magnitude
M3.4
Predicted value
Focal Depth
6.8 km
Below surface
Prediction Type
Prospective
Live forward-issued before the event
Location Map
Predicted epicentre
Nearest Recorded Event
⚠ Preliminary - subject to revision when the pipeline confirms the result
This is the recorded earthquake closest to qualifying. It fell outside one or more tolerances, so the prediction is graded a false positive. Parameters within tolerance are shown in green; those outside are in red.
Distance Error
87.8 km
Within 100 km tolerance
Time Error
7.9 h
Within 36 h tolerance
Magnitude Error
1.37
Predicted M3.37 vs actual M2.0
- 0.37 over limit
Depth Error
10.9 km
Pred. 6.8 km vs actual 4.1 km
Nearest Event Location
-
Integrity & Provenance
Integrity Fingerprint (SHA-256)
RETROSPECTIVE
d4c1592b5041f8dd42d832226248e8483524a5567808de4b09dfbde87dc5fd94
This prediction was ingested before fingerprinting was introduced. The value above is a retrospective fingerprint computed from the current stored fields - it reflects the current state, not a preserved original snapshot. Future predictions will carry an immutable fingerprint set at ingestion time.
Prediction ID
20260520_163808_pred-36.17--116.93-20230824T0236
Evaluation Protocol
v1
Model Version
v1
Prediction Type
Prospective
Publication Batch (UTC)
May 20, 2026 23:38:14 PST
Source Batch
20260520_163808_prediction_JSON_file.json
First Recorded (UTC)
2026-06-18 07:45:33.449388+00:00
Amendment History
No amendments have been recorded for this prediction. Original values are unchanged.