Permanent Prediction Record
×
Window Elapsed
No Match Found
The forecast window has closed. No qualifying seismic event was recorded within the predicted parameters.
Predicted Magnitude
M3.2
11.0 miles North-East of Soledad
Original Prediction Parameters
Predicted Location
11.0 miles North-East of Soledad
36.5473°N, 121.1997°W
Forecast Time Window
10th of September 2023
Sep 10, 2023 21:38:25 PST
Predicted Magnitude
M3.2
Predicted value
Focal Depth
8.6 km
Below surface
Prediction Type
Prospective
Live forward-issued before the event
Location Map
Predicted epicentre
Matched Earthquake
⚠ Preliminary - subject to revision when the pipeline confirms the result
A recorded earthquake fell within every matching tolerance, so this prediction is graded a true positive. Each parameter below shows how close the match was.
Distance Error
79.7 km
Within 100 km tolerance
Time Error
34.9 h
Within 36 h tolerance
Magnitude Error
0.03
Predicted M3.17 vs actual M3.2
Depth Error
13.6 km
Pred. 8.6 km vs actual 5.0 km
Matched Event Location
-
Integrity & Provenance
Integrity Fingerprint (SHA-256)
RETROSPECTIVE
1d7d0c83107aa8367830be931c62cc1f290158668c18438254c5fe28c9d17132
This prediction was ingested before fingerprinting was introduced. The value above is a retrospective fingerprint computed from the current stored fields - it reflects the current state, not a preserved original snapshot. Future predictions will carry an immutable fingerprint set at ingestion time.
Prediction ID
20260520_163808_pred-36.55--121.20-20230910T2138
Evaluation Protocol
v1
Model Version
v1
Prediction Type
Prospective
Publication Batch (UTC)
May 20, 2026 23:38:14 PST
Source Batch
20260520_163808_prediction_JSON_file.json
First Recorded (UTC)
2026-06-18 07:45:33.449388+00:00
Amendment History
No amendments have been recorded for this prediction. Original values are unchanged.