Permanent Prediction Record
×
Window Elapsed
No Match Found
The forecast window has closed. No qualifying seismic event was recorded within the predicted parameters.
Predicted Magnitude
M3.4
22.3 miles South of Tracy
Original Prediction Parameters
Predicted Location
22.3 miles South of Tracy
37.4333°N, 121.2965°W
Forecast Time Window
5th of May 2023
May 05, 2023 01:35:52 PST
Predicted Magnitude
M3.4
Predicted value
Focal Depth
7.3 km
Below surface
Prediction Type
Prospective
Live forward-issued before the event
Location Map
Predicted epicentre
Matched Earthquake
⚠ Preliminary - subject to revision when the pipeline confirms the result
A recorded earthquake fell within every matching tolerance, so this prediction is graded a true positive. Each parameter below shows how close the match was.
Distance Error
66.9 km
Within 100 km tolerance
Time Error
30.4 h
Within 36 h tolerance
Magnitude Error
1.00
Predicted M3.4 vs actual M2.4
Depth Error
7.3 km
Pred. 7.3 km vs actual 0.0 km
Matched Event Location
-
Integrity & Provenance
Integrity Fingerprint (SHA-256)
RETROSPECTIVE
9ee81b1b83937cd9bf7c59944798d1560a0f19e290a304893db9e4fe3025d464
This prediction was ingested before fingerprinting was introduced. The value above is a retrospective fingerprint computed from the current stored fields - it reflects the current state, not a preserved original snapshot. Future predictions will carry an immutable fingerprint set at ingestion time.
Prediction ID
20260520_163808_pred-37.43--121.30-20230505T0135
Evaluation Protocol
v1
Model Version
v1
Prediction Type
Prospective
Publication Batch (UTC)
May 20, 2026 23:38:14 PST
Source Batch
20260520_163808_prediction_JSON_file.json
First Recorded (UTC)
2026-06-18 07:45:33.449388+00:00
Amendment History
No amendments have been recorded for this prediction. Original values are unchanged.