Permanent Prediction Record
×
Window Elapsed
No Match Found
The forecast window has closed. No qualifying seismic event was recorded within the predicted parameters.
Predicted Magnitude
M3.8
2.9 miles West of Benton Hot Springs
Original Prediction Parameters
Predicted Location
2.9 miles West of Benton Hot Springs
37.8249°N, 118.6017°W
Forecast Time Window
5th of August 2023
Aug 05, 2023 01:55:27 PST
Predicted Magnitude
M3.8
Predicted value
Focal Depth
4.5 km
Below surface
Prediction Type
Prospective
Live forward-issued before the event
Location Map
Predicted epicentre
Matched Earthquake
⚠ Preliminary - subject to revision when the pipeline confirms the result
A recorded earthquake fell within every matching tolerance, so this prediction is graded a true positive. Each parameter below shows how close the match was.
Distance Error
41.1 km
Within 100 km tolerance
Time Error
17.7 h
Within 36 h tolerance
Magnitude Error
0.83
Predicted M3.83 vs actual M3.0
Depth Error
10.3 km
Pred. 4.5 km vs actual 5.9 km
Matched Event Location
-
Integrity & Provenance
Integrity Fingerprint (SHA-256)
RETROSPECTIVE
f64641e951aad32fe9f6b75ed37afc5f679faeb9e96e4ee960ec7fcf2b3dcdd2
This prediction was ingested before fingerprinting was introduced. The value above is a retrospective fingerprint computed from the current stored fields - it reflects the current state, not a preserved original snapshot. Future predictions will carry an immutable fingerprint set at ingestion time.
Prediction ID
20260520_163808_pred-37.82--118.60-20230805T0155
Evaluation Protocol
v1
Model Version
v1
Prediction Type
Prospective
Publication Batch (UTC)
May 20, 2026 23:38:14 PST
Source Batch
20260520_163808_prediction_JSON_file.json
First Recorded (UTC)
2026-06-18 07:45:33.449388+00:00
Amendment History
No amendments have been recorded for this prediction. Original values are unchanged.