Permanent Prediction Record
×
Window Elapsed
No Match Found
The forecast window has closed. No qualifying seismic event was recorded within the predicted parameters.
Predicted Magnitude
M2.5
2.5 miles South-East of Carpinteria
Original Prediction Parameters
Predicted Location
2.5 miles South-East of Carpinteria
34.3692°N, 119.4929°W
Forecast Time Window
7th of June 2026
Jun 07, 2026 14:48:36 PST
Predicted Magnitude
M2.5
Predicted value
Focal Depth
7.0 km
Below surface
Prediction Type
Prospective
Live forward-issued before the event
Lead Time
409h 1m
Advance notice before predicted event time
Location Map
Predicted epicentre
Matched Earthquake
⚠ Preliminary - subject to revision when the pipeline confirms the result
A recorded earthquake fell within every matching tolerance, so this prediction is graded a true positive. Each parameter below shows how close the match was.
Distance Error
45.1 km
Within 100 km tolerance
Time Error
19.4 h
Within 36 h tolerance
Magnitude Error
0.78
Predicted M2.52 vs actual M3.3
Depth Error
36.1 km
Pred. 7.0 km vs actual 29.1 km
Matched Event Location
-
Integrity & Provenance
Integrity Fingerprint (SHA-256)
RETROSPECTIVE
9be7cb0abf0555265472514f511280922debfd9f2f447084c6800545cb651b37
This prediction was ingested before fingerprinting was introduced. The value above is a retrospective fingerprint computed from the current stored fields - it reflects the current state, not a preserved original snapshot. Future predictions will carry an immutable fingerprint set at ingestion time.
Prediction ID
20260521_064653_pred-34.37--119.49-20260607T1448
Evaluation Protocol
v1
Model Version
v1
Prediction Type
Prospective
Publication Batch (UTC)
May 21, 2026 13:46:59 PST
Source Batch
20260521_064653_prediction_JSON_file.json
First Recorded (UTC)
2026-06-18 07:45:10.978154+00:00
Amendment History
No amendments have been recorded for this prediction. Original values are unchanged.