Permanent Prediction Record
×
Window Elapsed
No Match Found
The forecast window has closed. No qualifying seismic event was recorded within the predicted parameters.
Predicted Magnitude
M2.5
21.4 miles North of Warm Springs
Original Prediction Parameters
Predicted Location
21.4 miles North of Warm Springs
38.4877°N, 116.4576°W
Forecast Time Window
11th of June 2026
Jun 11, 2026 08:11:18 PST
Predicted Magnitude
M2.5
Predicted value
Focal Depth
7.0 km
Below surface
Prediction Type
Prospective
Live forward-issued before the event
Lead Time
498h 24m
Advance notice before predicted event time
Location Map
Predicted epicentre
Nearest Recorded Event
⚠ Preliminary - subject to revision when the pipeline confirms the result
This is the recorded earthquake closest to qualifying. It fell outside one or more tolerances, so the prediction is graded a false positive. Parameters within tolerance are shown in green; those outside are in red.
Distance Error
5.8 km
Within 100 km tolerance
Time Error
53.7 h
17.7 h over 36 h limit
Magnitude Error
0.20
Predicted M2.5 vs actual M2.3
Depth Error
7.0 km
Pred. 7.0 km vs actual 0.0 km
Nearest Event Location
-
Integrity & Provenance
Integrity Fingerprint (SHA-256)
RETROSPECTIVE
48735b93385f94f0fd544ba0df499dc92c285812b7d70586b2578036d35bfc78
This prediction was ingested before fingerprinting was introduced. The value above is a retrospective fingerprint computed from the current stored fields - it reflects the current state, not a preserved original snapshot. Future predictions will carry an immutable fingerprint set at ingestion time.
Prediction ID
20260521_064653_pred-38.49--116.46-20260611T0811
Evaluation Protocol
v1
Model Version
v1
Prediction Type
Prospective
Publication Batch (UTC)
May 21, 2026 13:46:59 PST
Source Batch
20260521_064653_prediction_JSON_file.json
First Recorded (UTC)
2026-06-18 07:45:10.978154+00:00
Amendment History
No amendments have been recorded for this prediction. Original values are unchanged.