Permanent Prediction Record
×
Window Elapsed
No Match Found
The forecast window has closed. No qualifying seismic event was recorded within the predicted parameters.
Predicted Magnitude
M2.8
43.3 miles West of Mendocino
Original Prediction Parameters
Predicted Location
43.3 miles West of Mendocino
39.2841°N, 124.6078°W
Forecast Time Window
11th of June 2026
Jun 11, 2026 05:52:55 PST
Predicted Magnitude
M2.8
Predicted value
Focal Depth
7.0 km
Below surface
Prediction Type
Prospective
Live forward-issued before the event
Lead Time
496h 5m
Advance notice before predicted event time
Location Map
Predicted epicentre
Nearest Recorded Event
⚠ Preliminary - subject to revision when the pipeline confirms the result
This is the recorded earthquake closest to qualifying. It fell outside one or more tolerances, so the prediction is graded a false positive. Parameters within tolerance are shown in green; those outside are in red.
Distance Error
136.2 km
36.2 km over 100 km limit
Time Error
3.2 h
Within 36 h tolerance
Magnitude Error
0.04
Predicted M2.76 vs actual M2.8
Depth Error
16.8 km
Pred. 7.0 km vs actual 9.8 km
Nearest Event Location
-
Integrity & Provenance
Integrity Fingerprint (SHA-256)
RETROSPECTIVE
61e32a4cf693bca3d6647162066c0e6095d3f8950344fe7c4089f2462f457161
This prediction was ingested before fingerprinting was introduced. The value above is a retrospective fingerprint computed from the current stored fields - it reflects the current state, not a preserved original snapshot. Future predictions will carry an immutable fingerprint set at ingestion time.
Prediction ID
20260521_064653_pred-39.28--124.61-20260611T0552
Evaluation Protocol
v1
Model Version
v1
Prediction Type
Prospective
Publication Batch (UTC)
May 21, 2026 13:46:59 PST
Source Batch
20260521_064653_prediction_JSON_file.json
First Recorded (UTC)
2026-06-18 07:45:10.978154+00:00
Amendment History
No amendments have been recorded for this prediction. Original values are unchanged.