Permanent Prediction Record
×
Window Elapsed
No Match Found
The forecast window has closed. No qualifying seismic event was recorded within the predicted parameters.
Predicted Magnitude
M1.9
7.2 miles South-East of Silver Springs
Original Prediction Parameters
Predicted Location
7.2 miles South-East of Silver Springs
39.3097°N, 119.1668°W
Forecast Time Window
31st of May 2026
May 31, 2026 20:23:50 PST
Predicted Magnitude
M1.9
Predicted value
Focal Depth
4.7 km
Below surface
Prediction Type
Prospective
Live forward-issued before the event
Lead Time
246h 36m
Advance notice before predicted event time
Location Map
Predicted epicentre
Matched Earthquake
⚠ Preliminary - subject to revision when the pipeline confirms the result
A recorded earthquake fell within every matching tolerance, so this prediction is graded a true positive. Each parameter below shows how close the match was.
Distance Error
13.4 km
Within 100 km tolerance
Time Error
7.0 h
Within 36 h tolerance
Magnitude Error
0.20
Predicted M1.9 vs actual M2.1
Depth Error
11.8 km
Pred. 4.7 km vs actual 7.1 km
Matched Event Location
-
Integrity & Provenance
Integrity Fingerprint (SHA-256)
RETROSPECTIVE
c2776f7bf79c396bda0e2b7c01ea181f0fcf18d7bb98e83434c8dfc6c5c401ee
This prediction was ingested before fingerprinting was introduced. The value above is a retrospective fingerprint computed from the current stored fields - it reflects the current state, not a preserved original snapshot. Future predictions will carry an immutable fingerprint set at ingestion time.
Prediction ID
20260521_064653_pred-39.31--119.17-20260531T2023
Evaluation Protocol
v1
Model Version
v1
Prediction Type
Prospective
Publication Batch (UTC)
May 21, 2026 13:46:59 PST
Source Batch
20260521_064653_prediction_JSON_file.json
First Recorded (UTC)
2026-06-18 07:45:10.978154+00:00
Amendment History
No amendments have been recorded for this prediction. Original values are unchanged.