Permanent Prediction Record
×
Window Elapsed
No Match Found
The forecast window has closed. No qualifying seismic event was recorded within the predicted parameters.
Predicted Magnitude
M3.3
1.6 miles North-East of Lytle Creek
Original Prediction Parameters
Predicted Location
1.6 miles North-East of Lytle Creek
34.2729°N, 117.4865°W
Forecast Time Window
31st of May 2026
May 31, 2026 00:05:24 PST
Predicted Magnitude
M3.3
Predicted value
Focal Depth
1.8 km
Below surface
Prediction Type
Prospective
Live forward-issued before the event
Lead Time
218h 39m
Advance notice before predicted event time
Location Map
Predicted epicentre
Nearest Recorded Event
⚠ Preliminary - subject to revision when the pipeline confirms the result
This is the recorded earthquake closest to qualifying. It fell outside one or more tolerances, so the prediction is graded a false positive. Parameters within tolerance are shown in green; those outside are in red.
Distance Error
116.6 km
16.6 km over 100 km limit
Time Error
22.2 h
Within 36 h tolerance
Magnitude Error
0.08
Predicted M3.28 vs actual M3.2
Depth Error
11.8 km
Pred. 1.8 km vs actual 10.0 km
Nearest Event Location
-
Integrity & Provenance
Integrity Fingerprint (SHA-256)
RETROSPECTIVE
f17f27b58f0941bcc15d3dc7a39a19f19a953a16340405715f1c4d19ed8f0723
This prediction was ingested before fingerprinting was introduced. The value above is a retrospective fingerprint computed from the current stored fields - it reflects the current state, not a preserved original snapshot. Future predictions will carry an immutable fingerprint set at ingestion time.
Prediction ID
20260521_142609_pred-34.27--117.49-20260531T0005
Evaluation Protocol
v1
Model Version
v1
Prediction Type
Prospective
Publication Batch (UTC)
May 21, 2026 21:26:14 PST
Source Batch
20260521_142609_prediction_JSON_file.json
First Recorded (UTC)
2026-06-18 07:45:14.121630+00:00
Amendment History
No amendments have been recorded for this prediction. Original values are unchanged.