Permanent Prediction Record
×
Window Elapsed
No Match Found
The forecast window has closed. No qualifying seismic event was recorded within the predicted parameters.
Predicted Magnitude
M2.4
38.7 miles South-West of Eureka
Original Prediction Parameters
Predicted Location
38.7 miles South-West of Eureka
40.3557°N, 124.6102°W
Forecast Time Window
12th of June 2026
Jun 12, 2026 19:43:14 PST
Predicted Magnitude
M2.4
Predicted value
Focal Depth
4.3 km
Below surface
Prediction Type
Prospective
Live forward-issued before the event
Lead Time
514h 13m
Advance notice before predicted event time
Location Map
Predicted epicentre
Matched Earthquake
⚠ Preliminary - subject to revision when the pipeline confirms the result
A recorded earthquake fell within every matching tolerance, so this prediction is graded a true positive. Each parameter below shows how close the match was.
Distance Error
32.6 km
Within 100 km tolerance
Time Error
25.1 h
Within 36 h tolerance
Magnitude Error
0.14
Predicted M2.36 vs actual M2.5
Depth Error
14.3 km
Pred. 4.3 km vs actual 10.0 km
Matched Event Location
-
Integrity & Provenance
Integrity Fingerprint (SHA-256)
RETROSPECTIVE
e934998ba0a49ad62d8714ac355c7206921ba24352ebcaff83a1fcc0e2f262bb
This prediction was ingested before fingerprinting was introduced. The value above is a retrospective fingerprint computed from the current stored fields - it reflects the current state, not a preserved original snapshot. Future predictions will carry an immutable fingerprint set at ingestion time.
Prediction ID
20260522_022919_pred-40.36--124.61-20260612T1943
Evaluation Protocol
v1
Model Version
v1
Prediction Type
Prospective
Publication Batch (UTC)
May 22, 2026 09:29:24 PST
Source Batch
20260522_022919_prediction_JSON_file.json
First Recorded (UTC)
2026-06-18 07:44:45.856739+00:00
Amendment History
No amendments have been recorded for this prediction. Original values are unchanged.