Permanent Prediction Record
×
Window Elapsed
No Match Found
The forecast window has closed. No qualifying seismic event was recorded within the predicted parameters.
Predicted Magnitude
M2.0
7.2 miles South-West of Cloverdale
Original Prediction Parameters
Predicted Location
7.2 miles South-West of Cloverdale
38.7123°N, 123.0776°W
Forecast Time Window
13th of June 2026
Jun 13, 2026 19:18:29 PST
Predicted Magnitude
M2.0
Predicted value
Focal Depth
2.5 km
Below surface
Prediction Type
Prospective
Live forward-issued before the event
Lead Time
537h 0m
Advance notice before predicted event time
Location Map
Predicted epicentre
Matched Earthquake
⚠ Preliminary - subject to revision when the pipeline confirms the result
A recorded earthquake fell within every matching tolerance, so this prediction is graded a true positive. Each parameter below shows how close the match was.
Distance Error
65.7 km
Within 100 km tolerance
Time Error
22.1 h
Within 36 h tolerance
Magnitude Error
0.27
Predicted M2.03 vs actual M2.3
Depth Error
10.1 km
Pred. 2.5 km vs actual 7.6 km
Matched Event Location
-
Integrity & Provenance
Integrity Fingerprint (SHA-256)
RETROSPECTIVE
6993f05bf4da92cc17d9f59ae3a6906e1ded90eca46726b0489df3074414702f
This prediction was ingested before fingerprinting was introduced. The value above is a retrospective fingerprint computed from the current stored fields - it reflects the current state, not a preserved original snapshot. Future predictions will carry an immutable fingerprint set at ingestion time.
Prediction ID
20260522_031737_pred-38.71--123.08-20260613T1918
Evaluation Protocol
v1
Model Version
v1
Prediction Type
Prospective
Publication Batch (UTC)
May 22, 2026 10:17:43 PST
Source Batch
20260522_031737_prediction_JSON_file.json
First Recorded (UTC)
2026-06-18 07:44:55.568457+00:00
Amendment History
No amendments have been recorded for this prediction. Original values are unchanged.