Permanent Prediction Record
×
Window Elapsed
No Match Found
The forecast window has closed. No qualifying seismic event was recorded within the predicted parameters.
Predicted Magnitude
M2.4
25.6 miles West of Austin
Original Prediction Parameters
Predicted Location
25.6 miles West of Austin
39.5213°N, 117.5498°W
Forecast Time Window
13th of June 2026
Jun 13, 2026 11:40:25 PST
Predicted Magnitude
M2.4
Predicted value
Focal Depth
4.3 km
Below surface
Prediction Type
Prospective
Live forward-issued before the event
Lead Time
529h 22m
Advance notice before predicted event time
Location Map
Predicted epicentre
Matched Earthquake
⚠ Preliminary - subject to revision when the pipeline confirms the result
A recorded earthquake fell within every matching tolerance, so this prediction is graded a true positive. Each parameter below shows how close the match was.
Distance Error
99.4 km
Within 100 km tolerance
Time Error
14.2 h
Within 36 h tolerance
Magnitude Error
0.42
Predicted M2.42 vs actual M2.0
Depth Error
17.3 km
Pred. 4.3 km vs actual 13.0 km
Matched Event Location
-
Integrity & Provenance
Integrity Fingerprint (SHA-256)
RETROSPECTIVE
bd6b2bb76696fdf7348603f55f7ab6c5a3d1702ef4b8bd2f37ca6612074023d3
This prediction was ingested before fingerprinting was introduced. The value above is a retrospective fingerprint computed from the current stored fields - it reflects the current state, not a preserved original snapshot. Future predictions will carry an immutable fingerprint set at ingestion time.
Prediction ID
20260522_031737_pred-39.52--117.55-20260613T1140
Evaluation Protocol
v1
Model Version
v1
Prediction Type
Prospective
Publication Batch (UTC)
May 22, 2026 10:17:43 PST
Source Batch
20260522_031737_prediction_JSON_file.json
First Recorded (UTC)
2026-06-18 07:44:55.568457+00:00
Amendment History
No amendments have been recorded for this prediction. Original values are unchanged.