Permanent Prediction Record
×
Window Elapsed
No Match Found
The forecast window has closed. No qualifying seismic event was recorded within the predicted parameters.
Predicted Magnitude
M2.4
38.7 miles South-West of Eureka
Original Prediction Parameters
Predicted Location
38.7 miles South-West of Eureka
40.3557°N, 124.6102°W
Forecast Time Window
12th of June 2026
Jun 12, 2026 19:09:33 PST
Predicted Magnitude
M2.4
Predicted value
Focal Depth
4.3 km
Below surface
Prediction Type
Prospective
Live forward-issued before the event
Lead Time
512h 51m
Advance notice before predicted event time
Location Map
Predicted epicentre
Matched Earthquake
⚠ Preliminary - subject to revision when the pipeline confirms the result
A recorded earthquake fell within every matching tolerance, so this prediction is graded a true positive. Each parameter below shows how close the match was.
Distance Error
32.6 km
Within 100 km tolerance
Time Error
25.6 h
Within 36 h tolerance
Magnitude Error
0.14
Predicted M2.36 vs actual M2.5
Depth Error
14.3 km
Pred. 4.3 km vs actual 10.0 km
Matched Event Location
-
Integrity & Provenance
Integrity Fingerprint (SHA-256)
RETROSPECTIVE
1f54dfeec67888af77002b38c83a9585e3a8e803109e4c680e2207a7e4b48acf
This prediction was ingested before fingerprinting was introduced. The value above is a retrospective fingerprint computed from the current stored fields - it reflects the current state, not a preserved original snapshot. Future predictions will carry an immutable fingerprint set at ingestion time.
Prediction ID
20260522_031737_pred-40.36--124.61-20260612T1909
Evaluation Protocol
v1
Model Version
v1
Prediction Type
Prospective
Publication Batch (UTC)
May 22, 2026 10:17:43 PST
Source Batch
20260522_031737_prediction_JSON_file.json
First Recorded (UTC)
2026-06-18 07:44:55.568457+00:00
Amendment History
No amendments have been recorded for this prediction. Original values are unchanged.