Permanent Prediction Record
×
Window Elapsed
No Match Found
The forecast window has closed. No qualifying seismic event was recorded within the predicted parameters.
Predicted Magnitude
M2.9
18.7 miles South-West of Crystal Springs
Original Prediction Parameters
Predicted Location
18.7 miles South-West of Crystal Springs
37.1089°N, 115.3704°W
Forecast Time Window
4th of June 2026
Jun 04, 2026 17:36:41 PST
Predicted Magnitude
M2.9
Predicted value
Focal Depth
5.8 km
Below surface
Prediction Type
Prospective
Live forward-issued before the event
Lead Time
318h 43m
Advance notice before predicted event time
Location Map
Predicted epicentre
Matched Earthquake
⚠ Preliminary - subject to revision when the pipeline confirms the result
A recorded earthquake fell within every matching tolerance, so this prediction is graded a true positive. Each parameter below shows how close the match was.
Distance Error
61.3 km
Within 100 km tolerance
Time Error
3.7 h
Within 36 h tolerance
Magnitude Error
0.85
Predicted M2.95 vs actual M2.1
Depth Error
13.1 km
Pred. 5.8 km vs actual 7.3 km
Matched Event Location
-
Integrity & Provenance
Integrity Fingerprint (SHA-256)
RETROSPECTIVE
bc8f59b86a01190891db90017e40a573628b4c3f5764ef07df314ffcdf1ab629
This prediction was ingested before fingerprinting was introduced. The value above is a retrospective fingerprint computed from the current stored fields - it reflects the current state, not a preserved original snapshot. Future predictions will carry an immutable fingerprint set at ingestion time.
Prediction ID
20260522_035321_pred-37.11--115.37-20260604T1736
Evaluation Protocol
v1
Model Version
v1
Prediction Type
Prospective
Publication Batch (UTC)
May 22, 2026 10:53:27 PST
Source Batch
20260522_035321_prediction_JSON_file.json
First Recorded (UTC)
2026-06-18 07:45:00.436691+00:00
Amendment History
No amendments have been recorded for this prediction. Original values are unchanged.