Permanent Prediction Record
×
Window Elapsed
No Match Found
The forecast window has closed. No qualifying seismic event was recorded within the predicted parameters.
Predicted Magnitude
M2.5
11.7 miles South-West of Manhattan
Original Prediction Parameters
Predicted Location
11.7 miles South-West of Manhattan
38.3987°N, 117.1847°W
Forecast Time Window
13th of June 2026
Jun 13, 2026 19:19:30 PST
Predicted Magnitude
M2.5
Predicted value
Focal Depth
4.4 km
Below surface
Prediction Type
Prospective
Live forward-issued before the event
Lead Time
536h 26m
Advance notice before predicted event time
Location Map
Predicted epicentre
Matched Earthquake
⚠ Preliminary - subject to revision when the pipeline confirms the result
A recorded earthquake fell within every matching tolerance, so this prediction is graded a true positive. Each parameter below shows how close the match was.
Distance Error
62.0 km
Within 100 km tolerance
Time Error
19.2 h
Within 36 h tolerance
Magnitude Error
0.02
Predicted M2.48 vs actual M2.5
Depth Error
14.4 km
Pred. 4.4 km vs actual 10.0 km
Matched Event Location
-
Integrity & Provenance
Integrity Fingerprint (SHA-256)
RETROSPECTIVE
470e1bd9504af826517ec729254b116cf8d5b010be62b8484f40ba8b7f300dcc
This prediction was ingested before fingerprinting was introduced. The value above is a retrospective fingerprint computed from the current stored fields - it reflects the current state, not a preserved original snapshot. Future predictions will carry an immutable fingerprint set at ingestion time.
Prediction ID
20260522_035321_pred-38.40--117.18-20260613T1919
Evaluation Protocol
v1
Model Version
v1
Prediction Type
Prospective
Publication Batch (UTC)
May 22, 2026 10:53:27 PST
Source Batch
20260522_035321_prediction_JSON_file.json
First Recorded (UTC)
2026-06-18 07:45:00.436691+00:00
Amendment History
No amendments have been recorded for this prediction. Original values are unchanged.