Permanent Prediction Record
×
Window Elapsed
No Match Found
The forecast window has closed. No qualifying seismic event was recorded within the predicted parameters.
Predicted Magnitude
M2.4
13.0 miles West of Jenner
Original Prediction Parameters
Predicted Location
13.0 miles West of Jenner
38.4275°N, 123.3473°W
Forecast Time Window
7th of June 2026
Jun 07, 2026 07:39:13 PST
Predicted Magnitude
M2.4
Predicted value
Focal Depth
4.3 km
Below surface
Prediction Type
Prospective
Live forward-issued before the event
Lead Time
380h 1m
Advance notice before predicted event time
Location Map
Predicted epicentre
Matched Earthquake
⚠ Preliminary - subject to revision when the pipeline confirms the result
A recorded earthquake fell within every matching tolerance, so this prediction is graded a true positive. Each parameter below shows how close the match was.
Distance Error
63.7 km
Within 100 km tolerance
Time Error
6.2 h
Within 36 h tolerance
Magnitude Error
0.32
Predicted M2.42 vs actual M2.1
Depth Error
5.3 km
Pred. 4.3 km vs actual 1.0 km
Matched Event Location
-
Integrity & Provenance
Integrity Fingerprint (SHA-256)
RETROSPECTIVE
b1ffc7e2da7d535c452c0185d2c947dec09d303fb60a6f44abf9de1c9e89bb4d
This prediction was ingested before fingerprinting was introduced. The value above is a retrospective fingerprint computed from the current stored fields - it reflects the current state, not a preserved original snapshot. Future predictions will carry an immutable fingerprint set at ingestion time.
Prediction ID
20260522_043723_pred-38.43--123.35-20260607T0739
Evaluation Protocol
v1
Model Version
v1
Prediction Type
Prospective
Publication Batch (UTC)
May 22, 2026 11:37:29 PST
Source Batch
20260522_043723_prediction_JSON_file.json
First Recorded (UTC)
2026-06-18 07:45:05.309934+00:00
Amendment History
No amendments have been recorded for this prediction. Original values are unchanged.