Permanent Prediction Record
×
Window Elapsed
No Match Found
The forecast window has closed. No qualifying seismic event was recorded within the predicted parameters.
Predicted Magnitude
M2.6
6.5 miles North-East of Geyserville
Original Prediction Parameters
Predicted Location
6.5 miles North-East of Geyserville
38.7968°N, 122.8302°W
Forecast Time Window
12th of June 2026
Jun 12, 2026 15:12:58 PST
Predicted Magnitude
M2.6
Predicted value
Focal Depth
4.2 km
Below surface
Prediction Type
Prospective
Live forward-issued before the event
Lead Time
507h 35m
Advance notice before predicted event time
Location Map
Predicted epicentre
Matched Earthquake
⚠ Preliminary - subject to revision when the pipeline confirms the result
A recorded earthquake fell within every matching tolerance, so this prediction is graded a true positive. Each parameter below shows how close the match was.
Distance Error
55.5 km
Within 100 km tolerance
Time Error
6.0 h
Within 36 h tolerance
Magnitude Error
0.28
Predicted M2.58 vs actual M2.3
Depth Error
11.8 km
Pred. 4.2 km vs actual 7.6 km
Matched Event Location
-
Integrity & Provenance
Integrity Fingerprint (SHA-256)
RETROSPECTIVE
1796f455f7c0ed0f6d5b7517855102bf7e64b2c9711bbb72857d78993774267c
This prediction was ingested before fingerprinting was introduced. The value above is a retrospective fingerprint computed from the current stored fields - it reflects the current state, not a preserved original snapshot. Future predictions will carry an immutable fingerprint set at ingestion time.
Prediction ID
20260522_043723_pred-38.80--122.83-20260612T1512
Evaluation Protocol
v1
Model Version
v1
Prediction Type
Prospective
Publication Batch (UTC)
May 22, 2026 11:37:29 PST
Source Batch
20260522_043723_prediction_JSON_file.json
First Recorded (UTC)
2026-06-18 07:45:05.309934+00:00
Amendment History
No amendments have been recorded for this prediction. Original values are unchanged.