Permanent Prediction Record
×
Window Elapsed
No Match Found
The forecast window has closed. No qualifying seismic event was recorded within the predicted parameters.
Predicted Magnitude
M3.4
7.6 miles North-East of Hollister
Original Prediction Parameters
Predicted Location
7.6 miles North-East of Hollister
36.9356°N, 121.3108°W
Forecast Time Window
9th of August 2026
Aug 09, 2026 16:33:27 PST
Predicted Magnitude
M3.4
Predicted value
Focal Depth
5.5 km
Below surface
Prediction Type
Prospective
Live forward-issued before the event
Lead Time
1892h 56m
Advance notice before predicted event time
Location Map
Predicted epicentre
Matched Earthquake
⚠ Preliminary - subject to revision when the pipeline confirms the result
A recorded earthquake fell within every matching tolerance, so this prediction is graded a true positive. Each parameter below shows how close the match was.
Distance Error
43.0 km
Within 100 km tolerance
Time Error
10.1 h
Within 36 h tolerance
Magnitude Error
0.54
Predicted M3.44 vs actual M2.9
Depth Error
10.5 km
Pred. 5.5 km vs actual 5.0 km
Matched Event Location
-
Integrity & Provenance
Integrity Fingerprint (SHA-256)
RETROSPECTIVE
90a5a9507b69f4edb4e9b9f85d2b09bbb77c096d3bba2c4b7e8c0d7ed40c8065
This prediction was ingested before fingerprinting was introduced. The value above is a retrospective fingerprint computed from the current stored fields - it reflects the current state, not a preserved original snapshot. Future predictions will carry an immutable fingerprint set at ingestion time.
Prediction ID
20260522_123627_pred-36.94--121.31-20260809T1633
Evaluation Protocol
v1
Model Version
v1
Prediction Type
Prospective
Publication Batch (UTC)
May 22, 2026 19:36:32 PST
Source Batch
20260522_123627_prediction_JSON_file.json
First Recorded (UTC)
2026-06-18 07:45:06.555398+00:00
Amendment History
No amendments have been recorded for this prediction. Original values are unchanged.