Permanent Prediction Record
×
Window Elapsed
No Match Found
The forecast window has closed. No qualifying seismic event was recorded within the predicted parameters.
Predicted Magnitude
M4.4
8.5 miles South of Convict Lake
Original Prediction Parameters
Predicted Location
8.5 miles South of Convict Lake
37.4723°N, 118.9010°W
Forecast Time Window
10th of August 2026
Aug 10, 2026 16:59:31 PST
Predicted Magnitude
M4.4
Predicted value
Focal Depth
5.5 km
Below surface
Prediction Type
Prospective
Live forward-issued before the event
Lead Time
1917h 22m
Advance notice before predicted event time
Location Map
Predicted epicentre
Nearest Recorded Event
⚠ Preliminary - subject to revision when the pipeline confirms the result
This is the recorded earthquake closest to qualifying. It fell outside one or more tolerances, so the prediction is graded a false positive. Parameters within tolerance are shown in green; those outside are in red.
Distance Error
225.6 km
125.6 km over 100 km limit
Time Error
17.3 h
Within 36 h tolerance
Magnitude Error
0.55
Predicted M4.45 vs actual M3.9
Depth Error
10.1 km
Pred. 5.5 km vs actual 4.6 km
Nearest Event Location
-
Integrity & Provenance
Integrity Fingerprint (SHA-256)
RETROSPECTIVE
794dbac5d8fede67d72b34cf5dea0d02de68f6dfa26ef7eb4d86d7615f3176eb
This prediction was ingested before fingerprinting was introduced. The value above is a retrospective fingerprint computed from the current stored fields - it reflects the current state, not a preserved original snapshot. Future predictions will carry an immutable fingerprint set at ingestion time.
Prediction ID
20260522_123627_pred-37.47--118.90-20260810T1659
Evaluation Protocol
v1
Model Version
v1
Prediction Type
Prospective
Publication Batch (UTC)
May 22, 2026 19:36:32 PST
Source Batch
20260522_123627_prediction_JSON_file.json
First Recorded (UTC)
2026-06-18 07:45:06.555398+00:00
Amendment History
No amendments have been recorded for this prediction. Original values are unchanged.